![]() |
![]() |
|||||||
| Fund Commentary | |||||||||||||||||||||
An Update from The Davis Research Team |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| Summer 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||||
|
As a sign of our commitment to all those who have entrusted capital to us, the Davis family, Davis Advisors, employees, and directors have more than $2 billion of their own money invested side by side with fellow shareholders in the various mutual funds our firm manages.1
This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, individual securities, and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. Equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In the first half of 2010 global equity markets remained in a broad trading range, appreciating in the first quarter before giving up ground in the second quarter to finish the year-to-date period in negative territory. In the first six months of the year, all major sectors declined to one degree or another with financials, energy, technology, and materials leading the way. The recent market downturn reflects a litany of concerns including relatively high unemployment in a number of major economies worldwide, prolonged weakness in certain residential and commercial real estate markets, relatively weak economic growth in the United States, uncertainty within the eurozone, and the impact of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, among other factors.
While today’s news headlines may give investors pause, it is important to consider the extent to which those concerns are already reflected in security prices. Today, many high quality, well-established businesses are trading at very reasonable price/earnings multiples, some at the most reasonable valuations we have seen in decades. While we know that stock market declines often weigh on investors’ emotions, an unemotional approach to investing suggests to the contrary that the long-term opportunity to own high-quality businesses is compelling. By definition, owning shares of companies for years or even decades means that some, perhaps all, of our investments will traverse rough patches along the way, whether they are specific to a company, an industry or the broader market. We know in advance that we are going to own businesses in periods of rising interest rates, falling interest rates, inflation, disinflation, a weak dollar, a strong dollar, and so forth. Therefore, when we think about purchasing shares of a company, we have to weigh carefully up front whether we think the business can withstand inevitable shocks in addition to considering the likelihood the business can grow earnings power (and therefore intrinsic worth) over full cycles. Then, company by company, we set out to build a durable, all-weather portfolio of businesses that can compound over the long term. Our Portfolio holds three primary categories of investments:
Market leaders with strong balance sheets— In many cases these are global companies with universally known brands, earnings that are well diversified from the standpoint of product line and geography, and fortress balance sheets. These businesses span a broad range of global industries from consumer products to financial services to technology to retailing, among others. They provide a core foundation of stability within the Portfolio and offer in our view the possibility of long-term sustainable returns through capital appreciation and dividends. An example of a market leader in the Portfolio is Coca-Cola (Coke), the world’s most valuable brand according to the marketing research organization Interbrand. As the largest global beverage company with more than twice the annual sales of its nearest competitor, Coke has an enviable and expanding portfolio of still and carbonated products that generates consistent growth. In 1997, for example, the company owned five brands that each generated $1 billion or more in annual sales. Today, the company has 13 billion-dollar brands and expects to have 30 by 2020. A large portion of this growth will likely be generated in developing and emerging economies where Coke is investing heavily. Non-U.S. markets already account for some 75% of current revenues, and in our view this growth will continue as more and more of the world’s growing population enter the middle class and has access to Coke’s products. Lindt & Spruengli, a Swiss manufacturer of premium chocolate, is also a representative market leader. The chocolate market is very segmented with mass producers at the low end and Lindt and a few others serving the high end premium market. Premium chocolates have higher cocoa and cocoa butter content, which produces a smoother, richer taste. This business enjoys a competitive advantage as premium chocolate is difficult to make, keeping larger mainstream chocolate producers at bay. Importantly, the strength of Lindt’s business model was proven over the past year as the company continued to build market share in spite of a challenging economic environment. From a financial standpoint, Lindt has a solid balance sheet with a net cash position which enhances its flexibility. With its large, strong, and durable global franchise, Swiss-based Nestlé is another excellent example of a market leader. Its brands, mostly serving the global food and beverage market segments, include Gerber baby food products, Poland Spring water and Purina pet food, among others. Nestlé’s sales show broad geographic diversification with revenues spread almost evenly among the United States, Europe and emerging economies. The company has a long history of disciplined capital allocation and regularly returns cash to shareholders through share buybacks and annual dividends. We believe market leaders like Coca-Cola, Lindt & Spruengli and Nestlé that possess strong brands, proven management, fortress balance sheets, and scale advantages are well positioned to create significant value for long-term shareholders especially starting from today’s very reasonable valuations. Out-of-the-spotlight businesses— After market leaders, the next major category of investments in the Portfolio is out-of-the-spotlight businesses. These are lesser known companies with attractive economics that in our opinion should eventually command higher valuations. Their appeal may take time to gain recognition, often because these businesses are smaller or operate in a mundane non-consumer-oriented industry. Given the right leadership and attractive reinvestment rates, these low-profile holdings can provide the opportunity for the “double play” of expanding multiples on expanding earnings, which can turn a company with a solid earnings growth rate into a stellar investment. As a general rule, out-of-the-spotlight holdings tend to be boring but have the potential to compound returns over time.
A representative out-of-the-spotlight holding is Mead Johnson Nutrition. While not a household name, Mead Johnson is a leader in the nutritional market for infants and children through its Enfamil brand. Mothers tend to prefer well-known brands for their newborns and once they become customers are unlikely to change baby formulas due to infants’ digestive sensitivity. Strong brands with a loyal following often generate solid profits and Mead’s baby formula business may be among the most profitable of all nutritional business segments with high margins and low capital requirements creating abundant cash flow. In addition, Mead Johnson continues to enjoy ample growth potential. As an example, its 15% market share in China is substantially below its 43% share in the United States. Overall, the investments we have made in the three categories described above combine to create a Portfolio that we believe is well diversified and can produce satisfactory compound returns over full market cycles.4 2 Individual securities are discussed in this piece. While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The return of a security to the Fund will vary based on weighting and timing of purchase. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 3 While we research companies subject to such contingencies, we cannot be correct every time, and a company’s stock may never recover. 4 While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. Equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money. For the year-to-date period ending June 30, 2010 the MSCI All Country World® Index returned –9.37%. The Davis Global Fund returned –8.21%, outperforming the broader market during that brief time period.5 Longer term the Davis Global Fund has outperformed the Index in four of the past five calendar years and since Davis Advisors began managing the Fund in 2004.5 The Fund’s performance in the year-to-date period reflects declines in most major sectors, particularly information technology, materials, financials, and health care. Against this backdrop of volatility we have selectively added to a number of positions recently and sold our holdings in DirecTV, News Corp. and Swedish Match.
The performance presented represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Total return assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Investment return and principal value will vary so that, when redeemed, an investor's shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund is subject to a 2% short-term redemption fee for shares held for fewer than 30 days. The total annual operating expense ratio for Class A shares as of the most recent prospectus was 1.19%.6 The total annual operating expense ratio may vary in future years. Returns and expenses for other classes of shares will vary. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. For most recent month-end performance, click here or call 800-279-0279. Health care related businesses currently represent the largest weighting in the Fund. Within this broad category we own businesses as diverse as Merck (pharmaceuticals), Johnson & Johnson (consumer health care, medical devices and pharmaceuticals), Becton, Dickinson (basic medical supplies manufacturer), and Idexx Laboratories (technology provider to veterinarian offices worldwide). Here, in addition to owning well-managed, durable businesses, we like the long-term demographic tailwind that helps support the industry’s economics. Specifically, we believe that health care spending is likely to rise over the next decade as a percentage of global output as developed countries spend more on medical products and services to meet the needs of aging populations, and as developing countries are increasingly able to afford the luxury of health care. Meanwhile, as noted earlier, in recent months a number of well-managed health care related businesses have traded at multiples as low as 5 to 12 times earnings with dividend yields in excess of 3% to 4%. Financials represent the second largest weighting in the Fund. Broadly defined, financial services consist of vast, fragmented markets and span activities as diverse as traditional lending, asset management, commercial real estate, and insurance, among other areas. Representative holdings that illustrate the immense diversity in this sector include the Hang Lung Group (Hong Kong-based commercial real estate owner and developer), Oaktree Capital (U.S.-based asset manager specializing in distressed debt), Brookfield Asset Management (Canadian-based global asset manager specializing in commercial real estate and infrastructure), and CNinsure (Chinese insurance broker). We have a longstanding interest in financial services for three main reasons: First, due to the sector’s sheer size and fragmented market structure, well-managed operators have the potential to grow earnings for years, even decades, by expanding market share relative to marginal competitors. Second, although the future is always uncertain, we believe the financial services category as a whole is not particularly prone to obsolescence since consumers and businesses generally need basic banking, insurance, investment management, custody, and other such services on an ongoing basis. That fundamental durability can allow investments to compound over many, many years. Last but not least, valuations for the sector tend to be relatively modest, meaning some of the best-managed businesses in the world can frequently be purchased at value prices and held for the long term. Consumer staples constitute the next largest weighting in the Fund. Here we own global market leaders such as Coca-Cola, Nestlé, Lindt & Spruengli, and Heineken. These consumer-related businesses cannot be grouped under a single universal theme. Rather, the companies we have selected in this category satisfy our preference for strong management, durable businesses, sustainable competitive advantages, and reasonable valuations. One additional feature we like about globally dominant consumer brands is that they generally exhibit strong pricing power, i.e., the ability to pass on higher costs to brand-loyal customers in the form of higher prices. This may prove significant in the long run should inflation appear again at some point. Industrials are a meaningful portion of the Fund as well. Industrials encompass a broad array of different industries and business types. Current representative holdings in this sector include Kuehne & Nagel (Swiss-based global logistics provider), China Merchants Holdings (Chinese port operator) and ABB (Swiss-based global manufacturer of power transmission, distribution and automation equipment). The balance of the Fund is broadly diversified among well-managed businesses predominantly in the materials, technology, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors. Once again, the common thread running through these holdings is that each was selected according to the Davis investment discipline with an emphasis on management quality, business model strength, durable competitive advantages, and appropriate valuations. The sum total of our investments creates a Portfolio that in our view affords our clients the potential to generate satisfactory compound returns over the course of many years while managing risk through prudent diversification.7 All of us at Davis Advisors thank you for your support. We are grateful and fortunate to have your confidence and will continue to work hard on your behalf. We look forward to continuing our investment journey together. ■
5 Class A shares, not including a sales charge. Davis began managing the Fund on 12/22/04. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 6 The Advisor is contractually committed to waive fees and/or reimburse the Fund's expenses to the extent necessary to cap total annual fund operating expenses for Class A shares at 1.30% until March 1, 2011. After that date there is no assurance that expenses will be capped. 7 While Davis Advisors attempts to manage risk there is no guarantee that an investor will not lose money. Diversification does not ensure against loss.
Audio Webcast:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||
This report is authorized for use by existing shareholders. A current Davis Series, Inc. prospectus must accompany or precede this material if it is distributed to prospective shareholders. You should carefully consider the Fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money. Davis Advisors is committed to communicating with our investment partners as candidly as possible because we believe our investors benefit from understanding our investment philosophy and approach. Our views and opinions regarding the investment prospects of our portfolio holdings and Fund include “forward looking statements” which may or may not be accurate over the long term. Forward looking statements can be identified by words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” or similar expressions when discussing prospects for particular portfolio holdings and/or the Fund. You should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements, which are current as of the date of this report. We disclaim any obligation to update or alter any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. While we believe we have a reasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate.
The information provided in this material should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. As of June 30, 2010, Davis Global Fund had invested the following percentages of its assets in the companies listed: ABB, 2.87%; Becton, Dickinson, 0.91%; Brookfield Asset Management, 0.62%; China Merchants Holdings, 1.96%; CNinsure, 1.13%; Coca-Cola, 3.59%; Hang Lung Group, 3.56%; Heineken, 3.36%; IDEXX Laboratories, 1.59%; Johnson & Johnson, 3.69%; Kuehne & Nagel, 4.31%; Lindt & Spruengli, 1.74%; Mead Johnson Nutrition, 1.18%; Merck, 3.59%; Nestle, 3.31%; Oaktree Capital, 1.04%.
After October 31, 2010 this material must be accompanied by a supplement containing performance data for the most recent quarter end. Item #4719 6/10 Davis Distributors, LLC, 2949 East Elvira Road, Suite 101, Tucson, AZ 85756, 800-279-0279, davisfunds.com |
|||||||||||||||||||||